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Bangladesh is likely to take a big economic blow as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its previous forecast of GDP growth rate to 5.4 per cent in the financial year 2025-26, compared to the earlier estimation 6.5 per cent. The updated conclusion has emerged due to speculation of instability in political affairs along with mounting pressure on the financial sector in the country which has led to severe concerns being raised nationally.
According to a report, the IMF published on June 23, political instability and the tightening financial policies are creating a significant negative impact on the economic development in Bangladesh. The still existing trade barriers and the weak state of the banking system were also mentioned in the report as one of the factors which added to the reduced growth forecast.
According to economic experts, the conservative approach brought about by IMF is not a surprise. High disruption of security was reported last summer in Bangladesh in political uprising that caused a change of government. The new interim government which has been in existence since then now has succeeded in establishing security and normalcy in the country but still faces fragilities in its economy which are yet to stabilize completely.
The latest revision is in contrast to that of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics estimate of almost 4 per cent growth during the current fiscal year which was more optimistic. The IMF is further casting light upon the rather challenging road to recovery with the 3.8 percent growth forecast in 2024-25.
In spite of the ongoing reforms and efforts to relax the policies, the country is on a stumbling block on a number of fronts:
- Policy tightening intended to control inflation is restraining credit availability.
- Trade tensions with key global partners limit the expansion of exports.
- Banking-sector instability continues to erode investor and business confidence.
Analysts indicate that this latest projection is an alarm call that there is a need to increase economic resilience through more efforts. Analysts also indicate that political tranquility and business friendly environment will be very instrumental in curbing further economic repercussions.
Bangladesh had been touted in the past as the most vigorous growth engine in South Asia. Nonetheless, the updated forecast of the IMF on GDP growth highlights the fact that politically and financially uncertain conditions may transform the course of economics. The final recommendation in the report is a robust appeal to comprehensive policy reform to kick-start a new period of growth and economic gains in the future.
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