The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts that the economic momentum in Bangladesh will become soft with the long-term slowdown in Bangladesh exports taking its toll on growth opportunities. Although the South Asia region can be expected to experience robust growth, Bangladesh encounters distinct challenges that are associated with the lack of external demand, domestic supply shocks, and stress in the financial sector. ADB in its December 2025 Asian Development outlook noted that exports, which are among the major growth drivers in the country, continue to face strain owing to the global uncertainty and domestic bottlenecks. Slowdown in the export of Bangladesh is already turning out to be a very serious risk that will contain investment, employment, and the general GDP performance in the next few fiscal years.
ADB Revises Growth Outlook for Bangladesh
In its recent regional appraisal, Asian development bank has revised its growth expectations of Bangladesh downwards. In the December report, the bank did not state a new figure, but repeated earlier arguments, as the growth projections of the FY26 in Bangladesh were revised down to 5%. The downgrade represents continuing frailty in the export markets, and thus the Bangladesh export slowdown is one of the key elements of the depressed prospective.
ADB observed that the recovered export earnings have not been what was supposed to be limiting the economy in compensating the problems at home. The trend is unlike the rest of the South Asian region where growth projections have been realized to be better because of the greater domestic consumption in the larger economies.
Export Weakness and Supply Chain Disruptions
As ADB points out, the slowdown in Bangladesh export is caused by external and internal factors. Lack of vigor in global demand has decreased the orders of the major export products, with the disruptions of supply sides enhancing the issue. In October, a huge strike that hit Chattogram Port, the largest in the country, caused a great impact on the movement of the trade as it touched over 90 percent of the imports and exports of the country.
These logistical hitches have slowed deliveries, increased expenses incurred by exporters and weakened confidence of buyers abroad. With the slow pace of exports recovery, the general growth picture is on the line.
Investment Uncertainty and Financial Sector Stress
Increasing investment uncertainty was also cited as another factor by ADB to slower growth. The uncertainty in policies before national elections has made investors play a low profile role again, increasing the effect of the Bangladesh export slowdown. Meanwhile, the financial sector has continued to be weakened; this has confined the growth of credit and the capacity of businesses to increase capacity.
All these have made the economy less robust when it is needed most to boost growth by registering higher exports.
Regional Contrast and Inflation Outlook
As far as Bangladesh has headwinds, there is an improvement in the overall growth outlook of South Asia. ADB has revised its 2025 regional growth projection to 6.5, which was driven by the improved domestic consumption in India. However, the situation in Bangladesh is quite the opposite as it is more susceptible to international shocks and trade disturbances because it depends on exports.
In the case of inflation, ADB had not changed its previous outlook by predicting the price pressures to reduce to approximately 8 percent in the current fiscal year. Stricter monetary and fiscal measures and a relief through deflation of the global commodity prices should help although there is still a decline in Bangladesh exports.
Read Also: Why Atif Aslam’s Dhaka Concert Was Suddenly Cancelled
