Bangladesh is burning again, and this time the anger is not just about the temperature. For weeks, thermometers across the country’s northern and western districts have pushed past dangerous thresholds. As El Niño tightens its hold on the region, the question is no longer just whether the heat will return today. It is whether the country’s institutions are prepared to protect the people who have the least power to protect themselves.
El Niño’s Grip on Bangladesh This Season
Bangladesh has faced one of its most heat-stressed seasons in recent memory. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction under NOAA estimated a 61% chance of El Niño forming and persisting through at least the end of 2026. Earlier this year, a heatwave affected 27 districts across Bangladesh, with Chuadanga recording 39.7 degrees Celsius for three consecutive days while Rajshahi crossed 40 degrees, a level classified as severe by BMD. As the season progressed, the numbers climbed further, with heatwaves affecting up to 40 districts on a single day by June, following smaller spells that had covered around a dozen districts earlier in the season.
What BMD’s Latest Bulletin Says Today
For now, the pressure appears to be easing. BMD’s most recent bulletin says a mild heat wave is sweeping over the districts of Rajshahi, Pabna, Nilphamari, Panchagarh, Kurigram, Feni and Chuadanga, and it may abate in some places. Rainfall is also on the way, with light to moderate rain or thundershowers accompanied by temporary gusty winds and lightning likely at many places over Chattogram and Sylhet divisions, and at a few places over Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh and Barishal divisions. Day temperatures are expected to drop slightly while night temperatures hold nearly unchanged.
Why This Season Feels Different, and Why That Is Controversial
Experts had already flagged this. BMD forecast at least eight to ten heatwaves over three months, with three to four expected in June alone. What makes this year contentious is the gap between forecast and response. Meteorologists sounded the alarm months in advance, yet heat action plans in most districts remain more paperwork than practice. Compounding the anger is the fact that Dhaka has seen a 97 per cent rise in days above 35 degrees Celsius over the last three decades, a trend tied to urban heat islands and disappearing tree cover rather than El Niño alone. Critics say blaming a Pacific Ocean weather cycle lets local urban planning failures off the hook far too easily.
What This Means for Farmers
For Bangladesh’s agricultural backbone, this heatwave season is not just uncomfortable; it is existential. Multiple districts recorded temperatures between 38 and 40 degrees Celsius during critical agricultural periods this year, and the combination of heatwaves and El Niño creates a compound risk where reduced soil moisture stresses crops early while altered monsoon patterns disrupt later development. This dual pressure is already threatening cropping intensity, particularly in irrigation and rainfall-dependent systems, with northwestern drought-prone districts facing the most severe impacts while coastal regions battle saline water intrusion on top of heat stress. For rice farmers, that means delayed Aman transplanting and reduced irrigation capacity for Boro rice, both of which can ripple into food prices and rural incomes for months after the heat itself has passed. Farmers relying on erratic pre-monsoon rain, the traditional Kalbaishakhi showers, are finding fewer of those storms arriving on schedule, leaving fields drier for longer stretches than usual.
El Niño Years: Heatwave Scope and Crop Impact Comparison
| Year | El Niño Status | Districts Affected | Peak Temperatures | Crop Impact |
| 2023 to 2024 | Strong El Niño | Up to 51 of 64 districts | 40°C to over 43°C | Record heatwave days in April; Boro rice irrigation strain, reduced vegetable yields and flowering disruption reported nationwide |
| 2025 | Moderate to strong | Up to 49 districts | Not fully specified in available data | Continued pressure on irrigation-dependent systems, salinity intrusion worsening in coastal cropland |
| 2026 (current) | Developing El Niño | Up to 40 districts on a single day | 38°C to 40°C in multiple districts during critical agricultural periods | Delayed Aman transplanting, reduced Boro irrigation capacity, compound stress from drier pre-monsoon Kalbaishakhi rains |
A clear pattern emerges here. Even though the raw district count in 2026 has stayed below the extreme highs of 2024 and 2025, the timing of this year’s heat has been especially damaging because it struck during critical planting and transplanting windows rather than spreading evenly across the season. Farmers in northwestern drought-prone districts have faced the most consistent pressure across all three years, while coastal regions have seen a steady worsening of salinity intrusion layered on top of heat stress each cycle. Vegetable growth and flowering, which took a direct hit during the 2024 spell, remain vulnerable this year too, since supply disruptions in that category tend to push consumer prices up almost immediately.
It is worth noting that granular, district-by-district yield-loss percentages for the current 2026 season are not yet fully published by BMD or the Directorate of Agricultural Extension. As those figures become available later this season, they will likely sharpen this comparison further.
Will Extreme Heat Return This Year?
While today’s forecast leans toward relief, El Niño’s influence is expected to persist through the second half of the year. Farmers and residents in heat-prone districts like Rajshahi, Pabna, and Chuadanga should stay alert for renewed spells, especially as rainfall remains irregular this monsoon.
FAQs
Which districts are currently under heatwave alert?
Rajshahi, Pabna, Nilphamari, Panchagarh, Kurigram, Feni, and Chuadanga, per BMD’s latest bulletin.
Is El Niño fully responsible for this year’s heat?
It’s a major driver, but local urbanisation, tree loss, and weak heat action planning are also contributing factors, critics say deserve more attention.
How are farmers being affected?
Heat stress is disrupting rice transplanting schedules and irrigation availability, while saline intrusion adds further pressure on coastal cropland.
Will rain bring relief soon?
Yes, BMD forecasts rain in several divisions this week, which should ease temperatures in some regions, though El Niño’s effects are expected to continue into the latter half of the year.
