Humans could become extinct by the year 2100 because of the malicious use of artificial intelligence or nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment. The warning comes from The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, which examined the dangers facing human health over the next 75 years.
Top of a List of 17 Threats
Malicious AI use and nuclear conflict head a list of 17 major threats to human health. The list is not limited to war and technology. It also includes cuts to aid spending by wealthy countries, the climate crisis and childhood malnutrition. Together, the threats show that risks to human health come from many directions, from the battlefield to the dinner table.
How the Threats Were Ranked
To build its list, the commission modelled how many years in good health people might lose to sickness, disability or early death because of each threat. The modelling was based on current trajectories, which means it assumes the world carries on as it is today. The measure used is known as disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs. By counting years of healthy life lost, the method allows very different threats to be compared on one scale.
Threats That Feed Each Other
The experts behind the report said all the threats interact. That means they cannot be treated in isolation and must be addressed together. A world hit by climate stress, hunger and shrinking aid budgets, for example, may find it harder to cope with other shocks.
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A Realistic Route to Act
Despite the grim headline, the commission stressed that there is a realistic route to act on each threat. The message is that these risks are not inevitable and that action is possible. Prof. Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and well-being of the next generation.
Why It Matters
The report treats extinction-level dangers as a health issue, not only a security or technology issue. By measuring each threat in lost years of healthy life, it puts nuclear weapons, AI misuse, aid cuts and malnutrition on the same scale. For policymakers, the choices made now on AI, nuclear risk, aid and climate will decide how much of the next generation’s health can be protected.
