India and Bangladesh Share a Relationship Founded on People, Trade, Culture, and the Sea
How does one state matter for another state’s relationship? There are many reasons why West Bengal matters for India-Bangladesh relations. One important reason is that it is not only another state within India, but it also serves as India’s primary land entry point when interacting with Bangladesh. In addition to this geographic connection, West Bengal shares nearly one-third of its border with Bangladesh, so all political developments occurring in West Bengal directly affect diplomacy, trade, migration, and security between the two countries.
Due to both West Bengal’s and Bangladesh’s close geographic location and cultural similarity, decisions made in Kolkata (the capital city of West Bengal) often reverberate across Dhaka (the capital city of Bangladesh). The types of state-level politics (e.g. election results) that occur in West Bengal influence how New Delhi formulates its overall Bangladesh policy.
The TMC Factor: A State-Centric, Cautious Methodology
Under Mamata Banerjee, her party, All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), has consistently used a state-centric approach when it comes to cross-border issues.
Examples of TMC Policy Characteristics:
Teesta Water Dispute Remains Unresolved
Due to opposition at the state level, the Teesta River water-sharing agreement between Delhi and Dhaka has still not been resolved, despite both countries being willing to accept it—this speaks clearly to the degree of influence West Bengal has in determining whether or not this longstanding issue gets resolved.
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Opposition to Implementation of CAA and NRC
The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) are both politically sensitive issues in West Bengal. The TMC’s opposition serves as a buffer from the viewpoint of Bangladesh regarding how these types of policies affect Bengali-Muslim immigrants.
Balanced Approach to Border Management
West Bengal has pursued a more balanced approach concerning the way it manages its border with Bangladesh as opposed to pursuing a more aggressive security-based approach; therefore, the local communities situated along the border are taken into account when developing and implementing solutions to existing cross-state issues.
What If BJP Takes Over?
India’s relations with Bangladesh are likely to change significantly if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes into power. Below are examples of the kinds of changes that could occur:
BJP’s Likely Policies with Respect to India-Bangladesh Relations
1. A Stronger Push for CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) and NRC (National Register of Citizens)
If CAA and NRC are implemented, there will be debates about migration and identity that could create uncertainty about the country for those living in Bangladesh.
2. Tighter Border Controls
The BJP’s emphasis on a security-focused strategy will create changes in the way that borders are managed, and, therefore, daily cross-border interactions will be changed.
3. Potential Movement Toward a Teesta Water Sharing Agreement
The BJP’s central government will likely reduce friction with Bangladesh and therefore make it easier to negotiate a Teesta water sharing agreement. However, political sensitivities in Bengal may arise from the BJP supporting the Teesta agreement.
If the TMC (Trinamool Congress – Mamata Banerjee) is in Power Again, How Will Relations Change?
The TMC will remain in power and India-Bangladesh relations will not change immediately, but the tone and pace of those relations will be shaped over time.
1. Continuity Between Incremental Changes
The policies will not change suddenly; therefore, the borders and citizenship frameworks will remain the same.
2. The TMC’s Role as a Buffer Against Hardline Policies
If the TMC is in power, it will limit the Centre’s ability to pursue a strong narrative about “illegal immigration”; therefore, there will be less diplomatic friction with Dhaka.
3. The Teesta Agreement Will Continue to Be Stalled
Even though there will be continuity, the Teesta will continue to be a source of diplomatic tension for the foreseeable future.
4. Continued Balanced Cross-Border Engagement
Trade, transit, and migration channels will continue to operate in “managed tension” mode (neither fully liberalised nor heavily restricted).
What This Means for Kolkata & Bangladesh Watchers
There are both political and personal consequences from a Kolkata point-of-view:
Families separated by borders and cross-border trade will continue to be sustained through softer, more local means of engagement.
Migration discussions will continue to focus more on local contexts than on broad national security issues.
While maintaining stability and complexity in regards to trade and energy, India and Bangladesh’s relationship will have some level of frictions concerning water-sharing.
Ultimately, Mamata Banerjee’s hold on power is not the sole factor affecting India and Bangladesh’s relationship, but it does favor (cautious) continuity and heavily influence state-level dynamics. Unlike some centralized, national security-focused approaches, a TMC-led government should ensure that regional issues—especially relating to water, identity, and border-based economic activity—are at the centre of the bilateral relationship.
In other words, the election doesn’t redefine the relationship, it just determines how well (or poorly) that relationship will continue to develop.
