A seasonal outlook from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has put the coming cyclone season in focus. Bangladesh’s coast has seen October storms before, so many readers are asking whether the country is in the firing line.
What ISRO Has Forecast
A prediction released through MOSDAC by ISRO’s Space Applications Centre on September 8 indicates three tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean from October to December 2026. The combined strength is estimated to be about 83% above the 44-year average. The Power Dissipation Index, a measure of total cyclone energy, is put at around 13.06 × 10⁶ knots³ against an average of roughly 7.15 × 10⁶ knots³.
What the Forecast Does Not Say
The outlook covers the whole North Indian Ocean, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. It does not say all three storms will hit India or any one country. Track, strength and landfall only become clear once a system forms.
What BMD Says for Bangladesh
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) said on Thursday that two to three low-pressure systems may form over the Bay of Bengal in October, and at least one could grow into a depression or cyclonic storm. A BMD meteorologist also said a cyclone may form between October and November. The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw between October 10 and 12.
Why the Risk Is Real
Bangladesh’s cyclone seasons run from April to May and October to November. Past storms show the pattern. Cyclone Sitrang made landfall in October 2022 and damaged over 20,000 houses. Cyclone Hamoon struck in October 2023.
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How to Stay Prepared
- Follow BMD warning signals and official updates
- Keep a charged phone, torch, dry food and drinking water ready
- Coastal residents should know the nearest cyclone shelter
- Fishermen should heed warnings before going to sea
What we should look out for
Bangladesh is at risk in the usual seasonal sense, but no specific storm has been forecast to hit the country yet. Watch BMD bulletins closely through late October and November.
